---

Tuesday, November 4, 2025

---

13:00 – 13:30 Conference registration (from 14:00 Hotel registration)

13:00 – 14:00 Lunch

14:00 Opening of the conference – Aleksander WELFE

14:15 – 16:30 Session 1: Macroeconometrics

Chair: Piotr Kębłowski

Lucas Berend, ANNA SZNAJDERSKA, Business Cycles and Fiscal Policy in the United States

Katarzyna Filipowicz, ADAM KRAWIEC, Anna Połeć, TOMASZ TOKARSKI, Golden rules of capital accumulation and golden rules of armaments

KRYSTIAN MUCHA, Marek Dąbrowski, Jakub Janus, Shades of inflation targeting: insights from fractional integration

16:30 – 16:45 Coffee Break

16:45 – 18:15 Session 2: Financial Econometrics I

Chair: Agata Kliber

AGATA KLIBER, Blanka Łęt, Electric Cars Greenvestment: How the Media News Affect Investors’ Perception?

Piotr Fiszeder, WITOLD ORZESZKO, Radosław Pietrzyk, News Sentiment Analysis Using ChatGPT for Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Application of Statistical and Machine Learning Methods

19:00 – 21:00 Ceremonial Dinner

---

Wednesday, November  5, 2025

---

8:00 – 9:00 Breakfast

9:30 – 12:00 Sightseeing tour

12:30 – 13:30 Lunch

13:30 – 14:30 Invited Session I

Chair: Jacek Osiewalski

ADAM GOLINSKI, Sophie Guilloux-Nefussia, Jean-Paul Renne, The Shadow-Rate Model: Let’s Make it Real

14:30 – 16:00 Session 3: Fiscal and monetary policy

Chair: Wojciech Grabowski

Rafał Chmura, ROBERT KELM, Fluctuations of the VAT gap in Poland: An empirical analysis 2005-2024

ANIQA ZEB, Joanna Bruzda, Amplitude and phase causality between monetary policy instruments and stock market cycles – a wavelet analysis perspective

16:00 – 16:15 Coffee Break

16:15 – 17:45 Session 4: Financial Econometrics II

Chair: Michał Łukowski

KATARZYNA BIEŃ-BARKOWSKA, Agata Kliber, Rodrigo Herrera, Can Uncertainty affect Extreme Events in the Oil Market? A MIDAS Touch to Dynamic POT Models

WOJCIECH GRABOWSKI, Ewa Stawasz-Grabowska, International Spillovers of the US-China Trade War 2.0: The Case of Asian Stock Markets

17:45 – 18:00 Coffee Break

18:00 – 19:30 Session 5: Modelling prices

Chair: Witold Orzeszko

Sylwester Bejger, XIAOHONG XIE, Magdalena Osińska, Comparing LSTM and Transformer Models in Gold Price Forecasting

Sylwia Frydrych, Katarzyna Perez, Małgorzata Snarska, Maria Czech, MICHAŁ ŁUKOWSKI, Between Scylla and Charybdis. The Impact of US Trade Policy Uncertainty on the Equity Risk Premia in the US Stock Market

19:30 – 21:00 Dinner

---

Thursday, November 6, 2025

---

8:00 – 9:00 Breakfast

9:00 – 10:00 Invited Session II

Chair: Aleksander Welfe

JOSE ALVES, The Relevance of Macroeconomic Rates of Return of Private and Public Investment for Fiscal and External Sustainability: OECD country evidence

10:00 – 11:30 Session: Applied Econometrics

Chair: Joanna Bruzda

Marcin Błażejowski, PAWEŁ KUFEL, Jacek Kwiatkowski, Bayesian Model Averaging for VAR Models within the Gretl Framework

Aleksandra Majchrowska, PAWEŁ STRAWIŃSKI, Sectors, Gender and Substitution – estimates of the wage premium

11:30 – 11:45 Coffee Break

11:45 – 13:15 Session 6: Capital flights and debt structure

Chair: Paweł Strawiński

Antonio Afonso, Jose Alves, WOJCIECH GRABOWSKI, Sofia Monteiro, Too Much in One Basket? Debt Concentration and Sovereign Yields

PIOTR KĘBŁOWSKI, What drives reserve assets hoarding in CEEC’s?

13:15 – 14:15 Lunch