MACROMODELS 2012 conference programme

Wednesday, December 5, 2012

from 16:00 Hotel and conference registration

19:30 – 21:30 Dinner and Get Together Party


Thursday, December 6, 2012

8:00 – 9:00 Breakfast

9:00 – 9:30 Conference registration

9:45 – 10:00 Opening of the conference – Władysław Welfe


10:00 – 11:00 Invited Session I

Chair: Aleksander Welfe

Gary KOOP, Dimitris KOROBILS, Large Time-Varying Parameter VARs


11:00 – 12:00 Session 1: Macroeconometrics I

Chair: Gary Koop

Władysław WELFE and team, New System of Macromodels of the Polish Economy

Alfred A. HAUG, Ian P. KING, In the Long Run, US Unemployment Follows Inflation Like a Faithful Dog


12:00 – 12:30 Coffee Break


12:30 – 14:00 Session 2a: DSGE and CGE Models (General Equilibrium Models)

Chair: Jacek Osiewalski

Michał BRZOZA-BRZEZINA, Krzysztof MAKARSKI, Grzegorz WESOŁOWSKI, Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?

Jakub BORATYŃSKI, Karolina KONOPCZAK, Olga KRASICKA, Jakub SKIBICKI, Integrated microsimulation and CGE model as a tool for regulatory impact assessment

Andrzej TORÓJ, Indirect cost of epidemic diseases in DSGE framework: preliminary results

 Session 2b Applied Econometrics I

Chair: Jan Gadomski

Katarzyna LESZKIEWICZ-KĘDZIOR Aleksander WELFE, Asymmetric price adjustments in the fuel market  

Agata KLIBER, Influence of the Greek crisis on the risk perception of European economies

Dominik KORNILUK, Optimization of the expenditure rule’s parameters values  by the genetic algorithm


14:00 – 15:00 Lunch


15:00 – 16:00 Session 3a: Bayesian Econometrics

Chair: Henryk Gurgul

Jacek OSIEWALSKI, Krzysztof OSIEWALSKI, Long- and short-term relationships among prices on different markets – VECM with a hybrid MSV-MGARCH structure

Roman HUPTAS, Bayesian analysis of the ACD model with some market microstructure variables for financial trade durations


Session 3b: Macroeconometrics II

Chair: Jakub Boratyński

Waldemar FLORCZAK, In the tangle of concepts. On the possibility to empirically unify various theories  as exemplified by theories of crime

Barbora VOLNÁ KALIČINSKÁ, Relaxation Oscillations Emerging on Money or Financial Assets Market or Model of Unexpected Fluctuations of Long-Term Real Interest Rate


16:00 – 17:00  Session 4a: Financial Econometrics I

Chair: Andrzej Torój

Barbara BĘDOWSKA-SÓJKA, Volatility forecasts based on data sampled at different frequencies

Henryk GURGUL, Milena SULIGA, Tomasz WÓJTOWICZ, The reaction of stock prices on WSE to the U.S. macroeconomic news announcements


Session 4b: Econometric Theory I

Chair: Mateusz Pipień

Anna STASZEWSKA-BYSTROVA, Modified Scheffe’s Prediction Bands

Piotr MAĆKOWIAK, The existence of equilibrium in a simple exchange model


17:00 – 17:30 Coffee Break


17:30 – 18:30 Session 5: Econometric Theory II

Chair: Anna Staszewska-Bystrova

Emilia GOSIŃSKA, Testing for structural breaks in Vector Error Correction Models

Jan GADOMSKI, Complex structures and the time-varying distributed lag models.


19:30 Ceremonial Dinner


Friday, December 7, 2012

  8:00 – 9:00    Breakfast

  9.00 – 14:00 Free time

14:00 – 15:00 Lunch


15:00 – 16:00 Invited Session II

Chair: Władysław Welfe

Georgios KOURETAS, "Bank Risk-Taking in Central and Eastern European Countries"


16:00 – 17:00 Session 6a: Modelling Wages and Income

Chair: Georgios Kouretas                

Aleksandra MAJCHROWSKA, Sylwia ROSZKOWSKA, Education and experience wage premium. Mincer equation for Poland

Ewa LECHMAN, Going beyond income - a multidimensional approach to socio-economic development level. Country-level analysis for the period 1990-2010


 Session 6b: Modelling Business Cycle


Chair: Waldemar Florczak

Marta SKRZYPCZYŃSKA, Business cycle in Poland - sectoral analysis

Piotr PIĘKOŚ, Identification of relationship between business cycle and monetary sphere of the economy


17:00 – 17:30 Coffee Break


17:30 – 19:00 Session 7:  Financial Econometrics II

Chair: Alfred A. Haug

Błażej MAZUR, Mateusz PIPIEŃ, On the empirical importance of periodicity in the volatility of financial time series

Henryk GURGUL, Robert SYREK, The structure of contemporaneous price-volume relationships in financial markets

Eliza BUSZKOWSKA, Implied Volatility and Historical Volatility in Conditional Heteroscedastic Models


19:30-21.00 Dinner


Saturday, December 8, 2012

8:00 – 9:00      Breakfast


9:30 – 10:30    Session 8: Applied Econometrics II

Chair: Marcin Kolasa

Katarzyna SUM, EU-banking sector features, regulation and outcomes in the prospect of increasingly integrated financial markets- a micro perspective

Aleksandra PARTEKA, Margins of trade and the estimation of "diversification curve"


10:30 – 11:30 Session 9: Modelling Business Cycle Synchronization

Chair: Karolina Konopczak

Krzysztof BECK, Maciej GRODZICKI, Income convergence, economic structure and business cycles synchronization

Marcin KOLASA, Business cycles in EU new member states: How and why are they different?


12:30-13.30 Lunch